Are We Strong and Determined?

Our Public Schools and Common Good Depend on It

According to the New York Times, Project 2025 suggests that the federal Department of Education should be “eliminated”. The Republican Party’s 2024 platform shares this idea and although Trump has been trying to distance himself from it, there is plenty of proof that he has endorsed it in the past. Not only that, but his positions are even weirder.

It is not surprising, that Trump’s position on education is low on content and high on red meat. He promises “the direct election of school principals by the parents” and to cut “federal funding for any school or program pushing critical race theory, gender ideology or other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content to our children”. To counter the threat he says is posed by the “Marxists” and “pink-haired Communists teaching our kids”, he’ll “create a new credentialing body” (the “world’s gold standard”), “to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values, support our way of life and understand that their job is not to indoctrinate children but very simply to educate them.” Wait, whaaaaaaat?

Firstly, under our current laws, he can’t make good on his promise to allow parents to directly elect principals. And, why do they need to? Parents (and other voters) already elect governing board members responsible for oversight of district administration. If parents aren’t happy with the way the school is run, they have the power to address it. Secondly, just so I understand, teaching kids the true history of America as a multi-cultural melting pot that has promised, but not always delivered, liberty and justice for all is indoctrination. But, teachers embracing patriotic values (as defined by the right-wing) and supporting our way of life (assuming “our” refers to white, heterosexual, Christians with children) is not indoctrination. Good to know.

What is also good to know, is that these issues were those of the last election, not of this one. As reported in The74, “an online survey of 1,300 likely 2024 voters – including parents of school-age children, found Americans now care about different issues related to public education: safety, high-quality teaching, and literacy. Or as The74 puts it, safe schools and kids who can read.

The truth is, Trump and his GOP cronies aren’t out to improve academic outcomes for all America’s children. They are out to keep the rich and powerful ensconced in their ivory towers by dividing the rest of us. This is why they promote the privatization of our public schools and couch (maybe I should have used a different word here) it as school choice and parental empowerment. The truth is that where vouchers have gone on the ballot, voters have rejected them. Voters know that our public schools are the hubs of our communities. They bring us together and help bond us in a shared identity. There is power in this shared identity.

We can though, fight back. We must vote for lawmakers who will legislate for the next generation versus the next election. We must recognize that America’s public schools have always been a big part of our success as a nation and are our best solution to ensure the “educated citizenry” Thomas Jefferson wrote was “a vital requisite for our survival as a free people”.

I am no pedagogical expert, but I learned a long time ago that people care how much you care, long before they care how much you know. So, let’s just start with really caring. That would mean we no longer accept firearms as the number one cause of death for children in the U.S. killing more children each year than car accidents, drug poisoning, drowning, and suffocation. Everytown.com reports that in 2024, there were at least 124 incidents of gunfire on school grounds, resulting in 34 deaths and 71 injuries nationally. It is inexcusable that school shootings are now just a way of life in classrooms around our country and lockdown kits are yet something else schools need along with locked single entry points, metal detectors, cameras, and active shooter drills. If we continue to allow the carnage, we just don’t care enough and that simply IS who we are.

A second step is for all of us to understand education is an investment, not an expense. The future is only as bright as the children who inherit it and we can’t give them what they need without a serious commitment of time and resources. Those resources include high-quality teachers and support staff, a full curriculum, and well-fed “butts in seats”. The GOP’s Project 2025 may call Federal school meals an entitlement program inferring it a bad thing, but students focus better when they are fed and we should care more about them being fed than about who does the feeding. We also need them to attend school. As the New York Times reported, “an estimated 26% of students were considered chronically absent (missing around 18 days) in 2023. Increased discipline problems are intertwined with absenteeism and both are holding back progress in our schools.

In a 2017 New York Times magazine article titled “Have We Lost Sight of the Promise of Public Education?” Author Nikole Hannah-Jones discusses how American public institutions and systems have long struggled with the ideal of serving the common good against the strong influence of the private market economy. She wrote, “If there is hope for a renewal of our belief in public institutions and the common good, it may reside in public schools”. I believe it does reside in our public schools, but only if we fight for them. It’s just sad that in the seven years since her article, the forces fighting back seem stronger, or at least more determined, than ever. Are we?

So…What’s the Real Deal with Vouchers?

Hint: It’s not about improving educational outcomes for disadvantaged children

I was reminded by someone today that back in the 1970s, Arizona public schools were 19th in the nation for funding. Now, they rank 49th. This didn’t occur in a vacuum, nor was it by accident. Rather, it has been, and is, a concerted effort to wrest power from the people by defunding the common good and destroying our sense of community. 

One of the most effective routes to this end is to privatize public education and Arizona has been the pace car. From being the first state to allow charter schools in 1994, to leading the effort to offer dollar-for-dollar tax credits to fund private school scholarships in 1997, Arizona has leaned into the school privatization effort. Although the path hasn’t always been a straight line, (an initial voucher attempt was ruled unconstitutional and the first try at universal expansion was successfully killed by a Save Our Schools AZ ballot initiative), AZ GOP lawmakers finally succeeded in passing universal vouchers in 2022.

Of course, those lawmakers didn’t do it on their own. The American Federation for Children (Betsy DeVos), Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brothers), American Legislative Exchange Council (national conservative bill mill), and the Goldwater Institute were all behind the voucher expansion here in Arizona and elsewhere. According to the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting (AZCIR), Arizona’s Goldwater Institute has said, “It won’t stop until parents in every state in the nation are empowered to decide what education path truly meets their children’s needs”. 

What, I would ask, about the rest of our needs? These programs, despite proponent’s claims, have not saved taxpayers money. Rather, they’ve diverted and diluted the funding available to our district schools, where 80% of our students are educated. In an analysis of state education spending, Columbia University researchers found from 2008 to 2019, “Arizona was one of the few states where public school spending declined even as enrollment increased. Per-pupil public school spending dropped by 5.7% during that period, according to the analysis, while spending on voucher and tax-credit programs climbed by 270%”. According to the Arizona Department of Education, the total annual ESA awards for students enrolled in Quarter 3 of this year is $735 million this year. And to those who claim that there is a direct cost reduction to public schools when students take a voucher, that is only true if the student was attending a public school when they took the voucher. In FY 2023, only 21% of those taking vouchers were in public schools at the time indicating families are likely using vouchers to subsidize expenses they had formerly covered. As of March 2024, AZ DOE claimed the number has risen to 61.5%. Regardless, when a public school student leaves to take a voucher, there are always fixed costs that the public school can’t reduce when one or a handful of students leave (bus routes, number of teachers required, utility consumption, etc.”). In the meantime, tightened funding hampers our public school leaders in ensuring facilities are well-maintained, and that transportation, technology, and other needs are addressed.

These programs also offer us no real accountability. Private schools aren’t required to participate in state or national testing, nor to publicly report the efficacy of their educational efforts with indicators such as grades and graduation rates. This might have been okay when parents self-funded their children’s private education, but it is not when taxpayers foot the bill. We have a right to know how those tax dollars are spent and whether or not we are getting an adequate return on our investment. Instead, the GOP-led Legislature has resisted any attempts to introduce more accountability into the voucher program. 

Of course, this is all by design. If schools (whether it be private schools, homeschools, micro-schools, or religious schools) accepting vouchers aren’t required to report on academic progress, they can’t be compared to public schools. This allows voucher proponents to make claims that can’t be supported with data. And, the more funding that is cut from our public schools, the harder it is for them to succeed. As Maria Polletta from the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting writes, “The harder you make it for public schools to succeed, the easier it is to sell the alternatives. And, plenty of well-financed conservative groups are working to do just that”. This leaves us to ask ourselves what’s in it for them.

I’d argue that the desire to maintain and grow their power and wealth is driving privatization proponents. We already have proof that vouchers work better for well-resourced students than lower-income ones. This dynamic, (according to Professor Derek Black who specialized in the intersection of constitutional law and public education), “will continue to exacerbate segregation and create a fragmented educational landscape”. Black goes on to say, “The people who propose these types of things, in my mind, are either highly ignorant of or highly dismissive of a 200-year commitment to public education with the understanding that democracy itself rests upon it.” Or maybe, just maybe, they know exactly what they are doing…

“Happy” Public Schools Week

Today is the last day of #PublicSchoolsWeek so I thought it an appropriate day to take a look at the state of public education in Arizona. Spoiler’s alert…our public schools need more than a week named in their honor.

Fraud in the Voucher Program. Yes, vouchers are alive (if NOT AT ALL well), continuing to rob our state and our public schools of valuable resources. Despite claims that vouchers would help poor children in underperforming schools, about 75 percent of voucher recipients (after the program was initially expanded) had no record of AZ public school attendance. And just this week, Attorney General Kris Mayes announced the indictment of five people on charges of defrauding Arizona’s ESA voucher program of at least $600,000. Three of the fraudsters were former employees of the AZ Department of Education. AG Mayes blamed the Republican-controlled Legislature for never properly overseeing the ESA program. The program expanded from “12,000 children, mostly with special needs, to more than 75,000 students” when the AZ Legislature made eligibility universal in 2022. Originally estimated to cost $64 million for the current fiscal year, budget analysts now say it could top $900 million.Or is it now actually $960M?

Arizona is a Standout in the Network for Public Education’s (NPE) Public Schooling in America Report. Unfortunately, it is for being second to the last in the nation (above only Florida) for public school excellence with only 22.5 of a possible 111 points. The points were divided into four categories. 1. Privatization (is the state committed to democratically governed public schools open to all and are there guardrails on publicly funded alternatives). 2. Homeschooling (are there laws that protect children). 3. Financial support for public schools (are public schools responsibly financed). 4. The freedom to teach and learn (do state laws allow all students to feel safe and thrive at school and for teachers to provide honest instruction to children free of political intrusion.) NPE states that “this year’s report card moves beyond rating states only on charter and voucher policies. It connects the dots between the growing number of “ruthless and brutal” policies designed to disparage, underfund, and ultimately destroy public schools and the privatization goals of the far-right”. The “ruthless and brutal” reference comes from a quote by Christopher Rufo (conservative activist) at the ultra-right Hillsdale College where he told the audience, “To get to universal school choice, you need to operate from a premise of universal public school distrust. He continued by advising the audience to create a narrative around public education that is “ruthless and brutal.” Arizona is doing well at carrying his water, earning an “F” in all categories.

Proposition 123. Of course, the hits just keep on coming as the end of Proposition 123 looms in June of 2025. Prop 123 was approved by voters in 2023 to increase the annual distributions from the state land trust fund from 2.5% of the fund’s average value over five years to 6.9%. If not renewed, the allocation reverts to 2.5% or about $270M, growing as time goes on. The easiest solution says Robert Robb, would be to “refer a clean and simple measure making the existing 6.9% distribution permanent law, distributed as presently on a generally per-pupil basis”. Robb outlines the reasons, however, that this is a huge task given the current political climate. Oh yeah, and did I mention that even if the voters approve a renewal (dated or permanent), Congress must approve the distribution formula because it is embedded in the Enabling Act which made Arizona a state. Need I say more?

Medicare Advantage Plans. What do Medicare Advantage Plans have to do with public education? Not a whole lot except that as Tyna Callahan, a Tucson resident since 1990 wrote in an op-ed in the Arizona Daily Star, “As a taxpayer, I object to the concept of redirecting taxpayer-contributed Medicare funds to for-profit corporations.” Hear, hear Tyna! As a taxpayer, I object to the concept of redirecting taxpayer-contributed public education monies to private schools. Just as Advantage plans are attractive to healthy people and insurance companies, school vouchers (ESAs) are attractive to families self-funding private schools and homeschooling themselves. And, oh, by the way, the private schools are liking the taxpayer dollars they are receiving without any accountability attached. Tyna points out that “by attracting and retaining the healthiest of Medicare recipients, Medicare Advantage plans are drawing Medicare coffers, skimming the low utilizers from the program. Sound familiar?

The Rest of the Story. The AZ Auditor General District Spending report for 2023 is out and according to Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services, indicates the “overall spending on instruction, on average, is the lowest percentage since the Auditor General’s Office began monitoring in 2004”. Although 53.4% was spent on instruction, that was down 1.1% overall from the prior school year. There are several reported reasons for this decline in instructional spending including districts having purchased large amounts of instructional materials the prior year, the need to hire counselors and instructional coaches, and “having to use more expensive contractors to fill support service needs for special education students”. The loss of more experienced teachers in rural districts also required filling positions with lower-paid staff. I must note though, that Fischer called these experienced teachers “tenured” but that is incorrect. There is no tenure for public school teachers in Arizona since this is an “at-will” employment state. The report also shows that “on average, Arizona teacher pay has seen a 30 percent increase since 2016-17, some of that fueled by federal COVID relief dollars.” That is approximately $5K more than the national average reported by salary.com in January 2024. But, the average can be misleading since “nearly one out of every five teachers has been on the job for three years or less, with an average salary statewide of $47,952”.

No, Arizona’s Teacher Lobby is Not a Union. Just as Arizona public school teachers are not tenured, neither do they have a real teachers’ union. Does the AEA lobby on behalf of public educators, yes. I am sure Billy Robb knows that Arizona is a “right to work” state which means that employees cannot collectively bargain and therefore are not technically a union. But, it fits his narrative better to call the AEA a “union”. And for him to claim that “ordinary teachers had nothing to do with the “Invest in Ed” ballot initiative is just ludicrous. I know plenty of teachers who were part of the effort. He does, however, make some good points about where any teacher lobby in Arizona should focus its efforts. One is to “applaud proposals to boost teacher pay”. I think teachers should be paid more, but I’m glad he makes the point that we need competitive pay for all school employees. Another is to “advocate for deregulation”. He proposes that “any future mandates on public schools should apply equally to private schools receiving vouchers for funding. If this stipulation would put an end to a regulation, what does that tell you about the regulation?” Amen brother! He also says we should “push for standardized testing reform”. Ya’ think? How about we just do away with it altogether?

And yet…our schools continue to deliver. You have to wonder how much more they can take. How many teachers have to be driven out of the profession, how much funding has to be robbed by privatization efforts, and how narrow does the curriculum have to become before our system of public education finally breaks? I don’t know and I sure hope we don’t find out.

Too Weak or Unwilling

Former U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, said, ”Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts”. These words written in 1983, with today’s relentless attacks on facts and the truth, are now even more applicable. The election was stolen, the January 6th insurrectionists were tourists, and the Earth is flat. Yes, there are people who still believe this as fact. Check out their website at Flat Earth Society.

Most of us however, live in reality, at least about the fact that the Earth is indeed, round. Unfortunately, there are way too many that deny facts such as those about climate change. This, despite all the available science and the terrible impacts we are witnessing in real time.

The news over the past month has been full of climate change stories. You’ve no doubt seen that Lake Powell, Lake Mead and the Great Salt Lake are all at record lows and although drops were predicted, the pace at which they are happening, is shocking. Lake Powell is now below the target level requiring mandatory cutbacks next year to Arizona, Nevada and Mexico with California following if the decline continues. 

Record heat blasted the Pacific Northwest last month, with Portland hitting 116 degrees and Seattle 108 degrees, both record highs. Even more surprising, was the 121 degree temperature hit in the British Columbia village of Lytton. 

The deaths of almost 200 people is attributed to the recent Pacific Northwest heat wave, 50 hawk chicks were found to have flung themselves from their nests 50 feet high just to try to escape the heat, an estimated one billion mussels, sea stars and other shore-dwellers died from exposure to unusually hot air, and countless fish are struggling to survive, including the endangered Chinook salmon which can’t survive beyond their egg stage in overheated waters. 

And it isn’t just in the Pacific Northwest. As of July 23rd, the U.S. had set 585 all-time heat records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). One place, Death Valley, hit 130, considered the hottest reliable temperature ever recorded there. 

According to the University of Nebraska’s Drought Monitor, 60% of the U.S. West is in exceptional or extreme drought with less than 1% of the West not in drought or abnormally dry. Average rain- and snowfall per year in the West has fallen from 22 inches per year in the 1980s and 1990s, to 19 inches from 2010 to 2020 and only 13.6 inches from July 2020 to June 2021. Now in a megadrought, the West has extremely low soil moisture, setting the stage for more frequent, and much larger and hotter wildfires.

These fires now rage across the U.S. West, and in Oregon alone, over 475,000 acres have burnt thus far in eight fires, with the largest, the Bootleg fire, generating so much energy and extreme heat that it’s creating its own clouds and thunderstorms and sending dense smoke 3,000 miles from one side of the country to the other. By the third week in July, 60 other fires were burning across the American West for a total of over one million acres consumed by fire. In fact, the average million acres burned in wildfires each year has doubled in the past two decades. And, they are happening earlier in the year and more often over the years, negatively impacting the ecosystem’s ability to regenerate. 

It’s not that we don’t know what to do. It’s that we just don’t care or at least not enough of us care enough. If we did, we could push back against the power of Big Oil and all those who profit from the status quo. That’s because they aren’t paying the bill U.S. taxpayers have had to suck up to deal with the impact of climate change. More than $350 billion from 2008 to 2018 according to the nonpartisan federal watchdog the Government Accountability Office (GAO). And by 2050, the cost is estimated to be at $35 billion per year.

For those who think this is not human-caused, but just a naturally-occurring cyclical change, I say “who cares” what is causing it? Shouldn’t we do everything possible to reduce any contribution we make to it? 

We know that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased more than 20% in less than 40 years, owing largely to human activities, and representing well over 50% of the total increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the onset of the industrial revolution (1750).

GlobalChange.gov

Approximately 12,000 Americans die annually from heat-related deaths. According to a study published by the US National Library of Medicine National Institute of Health, if heat-trapping gas emission continue to rise at the current rate, the number of deaths by 2100 would increase eight-fold. Even modest progress to cut greenhouse gases though, could cut heat-related deaths by two-thirds. 

What’s the chances that we’ll act in time? Maybe. Some scientists believe to avoid disaster, we’ll need to drastically reduce our carbon emissions by 2030.  Current population growth trends however, anticipate a 50% growth in the 1.4 billion people currently dependent on fossil fuels to meet their basic needs. The means the goal will only get harder to achieve.

Maybe the climate change deniers don’t care what happens over the next 50-plus years because they won’t be around when it gets really bad. Unfortunately, their children and grandchildren will, and they will be forced to deal with the reality we created but were collectively too weak and/or unwilling to confront. What a sad legacy to leave.

The GOP preexisting condition – they voted to kill ACA before defending it

Cross-posted from SkyIslandScriber.com

Republicans think you are stupid. As part of your mental incapacity, the GOPlins are betting that you, and millions of other voters, have no memory of what the GOP candidates said just a couple of weeks ago. A case in point is “preexisting conditions.” The entire Republican party repeatedly voted against the ACA (aka Obamacare) which has as a major feature protection for those with preexisting conditions. But the Republicans, notably the president and leaders of both House and Senate, vowed to kill ACA and thereby remove such protection. Closer to home, AZ CD2 Rep. Martha “Get this fucking thing done” McSally jumped on that bandwagon and repeatedly voted to kill ACA. Now, however, it is apparent that the public really likes ACA and wants its protection for those with preexisting conditions. Of course, you know what’s happening next. The Republicans, including McSally, are for such protection. Big time. Why the change? That’s the topic of this post.

I begin with various commentaries. But if you are strapped for time this morning, skip to the end and view the Rachel Maddow video from last night. It features our own Martha McSally flipping, flopping, and floundering on camera about the disconnect between her votes to kill ACA (and its provision for preexisting conditions) and now her claim to be its grand protector.

This morning 538 asks Are Republicans Losing The Health Care Debate? It looks like it. They’ve done a 180 on protections for people with pre-existing conditions.

This week President Trump tweeted that Republicans would “totally protect” health insurance coverage for the millions of Americans who have pre-existing medical conditions (while Democrats would not, he said) and encouraged people to “Vote Republican.” If this sounds like a bizarre 180-degree turn for Trump and his administration, that’s because it is.

Earlier this year, the administration supported a lawsuit that asks the courts to throw out key provisions of the Affordable Care Act, arguing that the individual mandate and protections for pre-existing medical conditions were unconstitutional. What’s more, Republicans have long campaigned on the promise to repeal the ACA and tried to “repeal and replace” it for much of the summer of 2017.

“The ground has shifted under Republicans and now they’re trying to catch up with this,” said Simon Haeder, a professor at West Virginia University. Haeder said the GOP may be trying to change its tune on ensuring coverage for those with pre-existing medical conditions because the position is now so widely accepted. “A decade ago or so, we had no protections for people with pre-existing conditions,” said Haeder. “And we got those with the ACA, and now they’re so accepted by everyone that Republicans feel compelled to acknowledge they want to support people with pre-existing conditions, despite what they’ve told us for the last eight years.”

But unfortunately for Trump and the Republican party, Democrats seem to be winning the health care public opinion battle: 53 percent of Americans said they trust Democrats to do a better job with health care than Republicans in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. Just 35 percent of respondents said they trusted Republicans over Democrats. Similarly, a recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that Americans were more likely to trust Democrats over Republicans on specific health care issues like continuing protections for pre-existing medical conditions and reducing health care costs. Even independents have gotten behind Democrats: 60 percent placed their faith in Democrats to protect pre-existing conditions (compared to 19 percent who trusted Republicans) in the Kaiser poll.

Americans have also come to feel more positively toward the the ACA in the last year. Forty-nine percent of U.S adults view the ACA favorably in the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll, compared to 42 percent who view it unfavorably. The popularity of the ACA even reached an all-time high in February of this year, with 54 percent of Americans approving of it according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

With just two weeks to go until the midterms, both Democrats and Republicans are doubling down on health care as a critical campaign issue. We reached out to experts to see if they thought it was a smart move for Republicans to try to shift the narrative on pre-existing medical conditions, but the experts we spoke to said Republicans were too far behind on the issue to gain much ground. They were also unsure if this might actually hurt Republicans at the polls. After all, health care isn’t the top issue for every voter.

Robert Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis at Harvard, told FiveThirtyEight that the best political strategy for Republicans is to “try to not talk about health care.” But Democrats have made health care a core campaign issue, running deeply personal and emotional ads, and Blendon said that has ultimately forced Republicans to respond. “If you’re there and the ads are running and you’re in a forum with a Democratic candidate accusing you, you have to say something. The old argument — ‘We’ll just get rid of it and start over’ — is a total nonstarter.”

In the short term, Republicans’ strategy of supporting protections for people with pre-existing conditions may help reassure some independent voters who were already planning to cast their vote for the GOP, but the experts we spoke with said it’s not likely to sway other voters. And in the long term, experts said today’s positions will make it tougher for Republicans to repeal the ACA, putting them in a difficult legislative position going forward.

Whether Republicans will suffer electoral losses as a result is unclear. But, Eric Patashnik, a public policy professor at Brown University, said in an email that “it is already clear that Republicans have made it even harder for their party to govern if they manage to retain control of both chambers and take another stab at dismantling Obamacare.”

See? The GOPlins are losing their bet against you and your memory.

Katrina vanden Heuvel writing in the Washington Post (and The Nation) hopes that Voters must catch on to Republicans’ con on health care.

And it seems that they are.

… [Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell is getting criticized for handing Democrats a campaign issue, but this has been Republican gospel for years. …

McConnell’s heresy was to mention his plans a few weeks before the Nov. 6 midterm elections. As committed as Republicans are to cutting Social Security and Medicare, they are even more rabid about not admitting that in election campaigns. More than a dozen vulnerable Republicans scrubbed their websites to omit any mention of their pledge or vote to repeal Obamacare. This year, emulating Trump’s penchant for the big lie, many have been even more brazen — cross-dressing as Medicare’s defenders against Democrats who favor moving to a Medicare-for-all program. Trump himself weighed in with a characteristically dishonest opinion piece in USA Today, arguing that Democrats would “eviscerate Medicare.”

For the first time, however, Americans might be catching on to the shuck. Health care emerged as a leading issue this year, even before McConnell made his comments. Democrats are on the attack against Republicans who voted to repeal Obamacare, deprive millions of health insurance and end coverage of those with preexisting conditions. The Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks paid advertising by candidates, super PACs and party committees, reported that from Sept. 18 to Oct. 15, almost half of the ads in federal races mentioned health care, including nearly 55 percent of pro-Democratic ads.

A Morning Consult-Politico poll taken Oct. 11–14 reports that among voters who prioritize senior issues such as Social Security and Medicare, Democrats enjoy a 19-point advantage (52–33) over Republicans. Seventeen percent of the voters reported these issues were their leading concern. In recent years, seniors have been the most conservative voting cohort, while having the highest turnout. Republicans won the senior vote convincingly in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. Trump won 53 percent of the senior vote in 2016. If these concerns dent the Republican margin among seniors, a blue wave would be virtually assured.

And Paul Waldman, also in the Post, boldly declared that Obamacare has finally won.

It’s happening on multiple fronts. First, polls over the past year or so have shown the law to be consistently popular — more so than, for instance, the tax cut Republicans thought would be the key to a midterm election victory. When even Fox News polls show the law getting more support than ever, the world is obviously not as Republicans would like it to be.

Second, instead of demanding that the ACA be torn from its foundations and set ablaze, the public seems more inclined to entrench its protections and expand its coverage. As the Associated Press reports, in the four conservative states where voters got initiatives on the ballot to accept the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid and insure thousands more people, the conservative lawmakers who refused to do so for years have been shocked by the popularity of the measures, with polls showing them with a good likelihood of winning …

Perhaps it shouldn’t have been so surprising after the backlash they experienced when they tried to repeal the ACA last year and it became apparent how popular Medicaid is. In the latest Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll, by a margin of 56 percent to 37 percent, voters in states that did not accept the expansion of Medicaid — conservative states all — now say they support expansion.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that the ACA’s guarantee of coverage for people with preexisting conditions has suddenly become the hottest issue in the midterm elections, so much so that one Republican candidate after another is airing ads proclaiming his fervent commitment to maintaining those protections — the very protections Republicans have been trying to destroy with repeal efforts and lawsuits aimed at getting the law struck down. You can find few better signs of the political success of a law than when the people who fought against it and are still trying to destroy it rush to assure voters that in fact they dearly love what it does.

And every time another Republican airs an ad claiming that he wants to mandate protections for preexisting conditions, he only reinforces one of the ideas that drove the creation of the ACA in the first place: that it’s the responsibility of government to ensure that every American has secure health coverage.

This is a story in itself. Remember the Trumpian formula for governance? For a given agency X, appoint as its leader someone Anti-X.

Just to be clear, none of this means that the ACA is safe. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said that if Republicans have the votes next year, they will try again to repeal the law. The Trump administration is encouraging states to add work requirements to Medicaid, the purpose of which is simply to force recipients to navigate a bureaucratic maze so that the state can find a justification to kick them off their health coverage. To be in charge of the Medicaid program, Trump just appointed Mary Mayhew, a former aide to America’s worst governor, Paul LePage of Maine, who refused to accept the expansion even after his state’s voters passed an initiative requiring him to do so; her mission seems to be to destroy Medicaid from the inside.

Regardless, the popularity of ACA might well shield us against such attempts at bad governance. Waldman concludes “Once people started seeing the benefits of the ACA, it did indeed become more popular. It still has problems and leaves gaps, and Democrats are becoming united around the idea of moving past it to go all the way to universal coverage. But it’s looking increasingly unlikely that we will revert to the unspeakably cruel health insurance system we had before the ACA took effect. Even if that’s what Republicans would still prefer.”

Lastly, you should set aside 10 minutes or so and view this segment from the Rachel Maddow show last night (Thursday, Oct. 25th). The clip is embedded below but if you have trouble viewing it, here is the link.

http://player.theplatform.com/p/7wvmTC/MSNBCEmbeddedOffSite?guid=n_maddow_a2mcsally_181025

The dozen things Susan Collins did not say should motivate female voters

Cross posted from SkyIslandScriber.com

There were few surprises yesterday on the Senate floor as the senators delivered speeches about why they did or did not favor the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court. The notable actions were from the supposedly undecided senators who announced how they will vote: Collins (yes), Flake (yes), Heitkamp (no), Manchin (yes), Murkowsky (no).

Susan Collins (R, Maine) took the podium at noon yesterday to defend her decision. I watched the full, hour-long presentation. I won’t (can’t, really) trouble you with her detailed defense of Kavanaugh’s judicial record, her condemnation of the confirmation process, her indictment of Kavanaugh’s opponents, her casting of doubt on Ford’s naming of Kavanaugh as Ford’s abuser. It was a bit hard not to be impressed with her defense of the presumption of innocence. However, what really grabbed me was what she did not say.

She did not talk about the dozens of potential witnesses ignored by the FBI in the reopened background check.

She did not talk about the apparent interference by the White House with that investigation.

She did not talk about the 90% of the Kavanaugh documents that were withheld from the Senators.

She did not reference the now over 2400 law professors who were united in their condemnation of the horrific rant by Kavanaugh.

She did not reference an additional letter signed by 900 female law professors.

She did not reference the announced opposition by former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens.

She did not cite the American Bar Association’s concerns about Kavanaugh.

She did not mention the (rare) opposing announcement by the National Council of Churches.

She did not cite the studied editorial positions of America’s two major newspapers, the New York Times and the Washington Post.

She did not refer to the dishonesties attributed to Kavanaugh’s previous appearances before the Senate.

She did not take note of Kavanaugh’s deranged rant in which he blamed Democrats and the Clintons for the opposition to his confirmation. He stopped just short of “Lock her up!”

And, particularly galling to me: after citing the over 90% concurrence between voting patterns of Kavanaugh and Merrick Garland, she did not admit to how the Senate Republicans denied a chance for the nominee of a sitting president to be heard let alone voted upon for over a year. In ignoring McConnell’s role in that cheat, as one columnist called it, she let stand the underlying hypocrisy of this rushed Republican circus.

You can read about the details in the post this morning by the AZ Blue Meanie at Blog for Arizona who wrote Despite massive opposition, Republicans are set to confirm the most unpopular judicial nominee in American history.

David Fitzsimmons, editorial cartoonist and columnist at the Daily Star, will have the last words for now as he says I believe Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh told the truth.

If you are a woman, on the way to getting even, you should be seriously mad. Because, Fitz says, you know that “if a woman acted like Kavanaugh did, she would have been dismissed as a hysterical, raging bitch. If a black man acted like Kavanaugh, he would have been cuffed and searched. Any Latino who dared to act like Kavanaugh would have been put on a plane to Mexico yesterday.”

“It’s good be a preppy, Brett”, observes Fitz.

And there is one more thing Collins did not say. That’s the indelible memory that Christine Ford will carry to the grave, the memory of two drunk preppies having a laugh at her expense. Fitz again:

… the king and all the king’s men had best know that in 2018, Hell hath no fury like a woman voter scorned by her prehistoric senators. This election year, indelible in the female voter’s hippocampus as she contemplates her vote, will be the laughter. The uproarious laughter between you, Mister President, and your fans at that rally, having fun at the expense of a sexual assault victim.

If you are woman, please, please let me watch you vote.

An open letter to Sen. Jeff Flake

Cross-posted from skyislandscriber.com

Following is a letter to the editor from your Scriber appearing in the Green Valley News this morning titled Kavanaugh vote.

An open letter to Sen. Jeff Flake.

At the end of Bertolt Brecht’s play, Galileo tells his former student “The practice of science would seem to call for valor.” I add, “The practice of responsible politics would seem to call for valor.”

Shortly you will be asked to cast a vote on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination for the Supreme Court. What you do might well take valor. Everything you detest about President Trump exists as a microcosm that played out in the confirmation hearings. The record shows Kavanaugh being less than honest in previous appearances before the Senate. The record this year shows Kavanaugh being evasive and not answering questions put by the senators. In the past, you have spoken out forcefully on your displeasure with the president. Trump most recently has tried to use the Justice Department against his political opponents. And now Trump’s nomination of Kavanaugh appears to be a ploy to protect himself from his legal entanglements. You need to talk about the connection between Trump and Kavanaugh, but you need to do more. You need to vote against that confirmation. Your integrity and credibility are at stake.

In the Rogue Theatre director’s notes, we are told: “Like the courtiers surrounding Prince Cosimo de Medici who refuse to look through Galileo’s telescope, we refuse to learn the truth because it might upset our ideas about the way things are.” You, sir, are not a courtier and Donald Trump is not a king. You are a United States senator and as such you should demand and get honesty and forthrightness from those who testify before the Senate.

I hope you will behave with valor and vote against this confirmation. I ask this of you in the name of the citizens of the United States of America to whom you owe the truth.

Bill Maki, Green Valley

BTW: I highly recommend the Rogue Theatre version of the play, Galileo.

The most important vote you ever cast

Cross-posted from skyislandscriber.com

Bob Lord at Blog for Arizona reminds us that Reality Calls: Kyrsten Sinema May Be the Most Important Vote You Ever Cast. Here it is in full.

I was hoping a miracle would save me from writing this post.

I so wanted Deedra Abboud to pull off a stunning upset, even though I knew it couldn’t happen.

But reality has arrived. Kyrsten Sinema is the nominee for U.S. Senate of the Democratic Party.

And as soon as I receive my ballot in the mail in October, I’ll be connecting that broken bar next to her name. It’ll be painful. I’ll undoubtedly throw up a little in the back of my mouth as I do it. But there will be no hesitation on my part. Sanity demands no less.

And if you want to maximize our chance of avoiding disaster, you’ll be joining me.

I will do this with no delusions about how Sinema will vote. I know each vote she casts will be an exercise in abject cynicism, with the sole consideration being how it impacts her own political future, principle be damned. I know she’ll vote to repeal the estate tax on billionaires and to let Wall Street thieves run wild. I get that.

But it’s not about how she will vote; it’s about who she’ll caucus with and about avoiding the alternative, Martha McSally. Whatever the possibilities are to wrest control of the Senate from Mitch McConnell, we need to maximize them. If that chance is a mere one percent, we need to pull for it. If it’s 99 percent, we need to make certain there is no surprise. And as tragically flawed as Sinema is, McSally, who repeatedly pledges fealty to Trump, is a thousand times worse. Yeah, I know, the lesser of two evils is still evil. But when choosing between a shoplifter and an axe murderer, choose the shoplifter. It’ll be a choice you can live with.

For Arizona progressives who resent the condescension of establishment hacks stupidly blaming you for Hillary Clinton’s loss, when any moron could figure out that the election was lost in the rust belt, I feel your pain. But the election isn’t about those establishment hacks, no matter how much their condescension tempts you to lash out and vote Green or stay home. This is not 2016. This time, Arizona is the epicenter. Sinema’s success in November is crucial. Arizona very well could decide the balance of political power in the U.S. Senate.

And there is nothing remotely as important as constraining the power of Donald Trump. Nothing.

So, when you receive your ballot, get it over with right away, lest you not give in to the temptation to send a message, or forget to vote early, then get whacked with some emergency on Election Day.

And if you wake up feeling a bit cheapened on November 7th, you can find redemption by gearing up for the 2024 primary. It’ll be here before you know it.

Scriber weighs in: If you stay home, you get McSally. If you vote Green or Libertarian, you get McSally. You can continue to be a progressive, but you need to get practical. She “who repeatedly pledges fealty to Trump, is a thousand times worse” than Sinema. Here are some samples of what I’ve posted in the recent past.

From my May 21, ,2018 post: In Election 2018 ‘The Democrats are coming.’ But which ones and how Democratic? I reviewed the reasons for thinking badly of Sinema, concluding:

So, do with this what you will. But remember 167. That’s the number of Democrats who were angered by some of then Rep. Ron Barber’s votes who stayed home in 2014 and thereby were complicit in getting McSally the CD2 seat. Which she kept in 2016. And which may now be her path to the Senate. And then the Presidency.

If you don’t like Sinema for Senate (and there are good reasons why you should not), what are you going to do come November? Are you (oh, hell, we) willing to accept McSally or Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio over Sinema?

From my June 13, 2018 post: Research report – Krysten Sinema’s votes reveal progressive values.

For Sinema’s record in the U. S. House, I used 538’s Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump. An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against the president. One measure is “how often a member votes in line with Trump’s position.” Sinema scores 57.3% and is the third highest Democrat in the House in voting with Trump.

However, that percentage is misleading. Here is why. The percentage includes lots of bills that provide stop-gap funding to keep the government running or that deal with other budgetary matters. Votes for these kinds of routine bills will tend to inflate the percentage score – assuming we all want to keep our government running. (Disclosure: I’ve used that percentage score to criticize other candidates before. Now I have to reevaluate that practice.)

Instead of using the overall percentage we need to look at votes on legislation that matter to progressives, for example, denying funding for Planned Parenthood, punishing sanctuary cities, increasing the availability of guns, repeal of Dodd-Frank, and repeal of regulations that provide for clean air and water. I pulled the records for 33 such bills from January 1, 2017 to present. I counted the number of instances in which Sinema voted against legislation supported by Trump. Her score was 85% opposed to Trump’s position.

You might ask how good is that score. To establish bounds on that measure I used the same method to compute the progressive scores for Raul Grijalva (AZ CD 3) and Martha McSally (AZ CD2). Grijalva scored a perfect 100% opposed to Trump’s positions and McSally, voting almost entirely with Trump on everything, scored 3%. (By the way, Trump’s score on the same measure was a perfect 0%.)

At the time of this writing, it appears that a likely match-up for the AZ U. S. Senate seat will be between Sinema and McSally. When it comes to deciding on how to vote, if you want ideological purity, you could point to the difference between Sinema and Grijalva (100% – 85% = 15%) and stay home. But if you want to flip that seat held by Republican Jeff Flake to a Democrat, you should focus on the difference between Sinema’s progressive score vs. that of McSally (85% – 3% = 82%) and Get Out to Vote.

Arizona Fails Another Test

Yesterday, the Network for Public Education and the Schott Foundation for Public Education, released a report titled “Grading the States” that serves as a report card on our nation’s commitment to public schools. At the onset, they challenge the belief in privatization as the solution and write,

Although the public school system is not perfect and has continual room for improvement, it is still the cornerstone of community empowerment and advancement in American society.

Therein, I believe, lies the rub. Those driving America’s economic engine, don’t want everyone aboard the train. Instead, those who most “have”, are working very hard to leave the “have nots” at the station. As Stephen Brill writes in his new book “Tailspin”,

Conservatives have always preached self-reliance while liberals favored an activist government that assures the common good. However, [what we are seeing now] is a new, wider, and more dangerous divide – between those at the top, who enjoy unprecendented power, and everyone else. For those at the top, the common good is no longer good for them.

Even though many Americans have become polarized into either the Conservative or Liberal camps, the real fight isn’t there. Increasingly, it is between the MEGA “haves” and the “have-nots”. Truth is, for these MEGA “haves”, political ideology and allegiance to our nation, are likely much less important than maintaining and improving their status. After all, in our global economy, our country’s borders are no barrier to their multi-national interests and in their gilded worlds, not only do they increasingly not care about the common good, they don’t even need it. And nothing, is more all about the “common good” than public education. It provides opportunity to all and is largely responsible for building the strongest middle class in the world, once making the American Dream a possibility for many.

Now, that Dream is largely out-of-reach by the vast majority of Americans and the assault on public education is a real threat to our nation. As “Grading the States” points out,

Privatization in public schools weakens our democracy and often sacrifices the rights and opportunities of the majority for the presumed advantage of a small percentage of students.

Those paying attention, are aware of the threat. What “Grading the States” does, is drive home the havoc being wreaked by grading each state according to “instituted policies and practices that lead toward fewer democratic opportunities and more privatization”, as well as “the guardrails put into place [or not] to protect the rights of students, communities and taxpayers”.

It should surprise no Arizona public school advocate that our state received an “F” rating. It also should not surprise that Arizona was ranked 51st overall, 50th in voucher policy and 49th in charter policy.

Delving into further details, the report notes that,

Of the 18 states with Tuition Tax-Credit Programs, 9 fail to require any accreditation of the schools that receive a benefit from such Tuition Tax-Credit Programs. Arizona has the worst accountability over their Tuition Tax-Credit Programs. Except for requiring background checks for teachers and employees, Arizona’s Tuition Tax-Credit Programs fail all the reviewed accountability categories.

It also points out that although privatization advocates claim “vouchers and charter programs are more accountable than public schools”, research just doesn’t bear this out.

For example, the ESA program of Arizona, the largest in the country, expects no evidence or monitoring of student achievement, while placing 90% of the public school funding on a debit card for parents to find non-public education services.

Only public district schools after all, have locally elected governing board members, who are accountable to the voters and taxpayers, and must adhere to open meeting laws.

Perhaps craziest of all, is that we are all being sold a bill of goods that aren’t, by and large, delivering better results and that most of us really don’t want. According to the report, a poll conducted in October 2017 found that,

among all registered voters, only 40 percent supported vouchers while 55 percent are opposed. This number further decreases to 23 percent with opposition at 70 percent when voters were asked to consider support if it meant less money for public schools.

In Arizona, a December 2016 poll supported these findings, showing that 77 percent indicated the state should spend more money on our schools and 61 percent indicated they would support a tax increase to provide additional funding for education.

To understand why then, the push to privatize is being pursued with such vigor, one need only follow the profit and power. The U.S. K-12 education market is estimated to be worth some $700 billion. The oversight of public education is the most fundamental exercise of our right to self-govern and in many communities, our districts are the hubs of those communities. If the privatizers succeed in killing our right to, and interest in, engaging on behalf of our children, what engagement will we still care about?

 

CALL FOR ACTION – protest family separation policy to your Reps and Senators NOW

Cross-posted from SkyIslandScriber.com

In the Daily Star this morning, Isabel Garcia (former director of the Pima County Legal Defender) and Dino DeConcini (former Tucson City attorney) call for action in We must speak out against immigrant family separation. The full article is reprinted here – along with Fitz’s take on the “zero tolerance” of King Donald the Cruel.

Trump the Cruel
Children detention centers in America?
Or Hitlerian concentration camps?

On May 7, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Session announced that the Department of Homeland Security would refer 100 percent of illegal border crossers for prosecution, including parents with children. On May 14, six Tucson Operation Streamline lawyers arrived at the DeConcini Federal Courthouse to meet with their assigned immigrant clients and encountered frantic parents who did not know where their children had been taken.

No one knew the location of the children or how to help the parents. The Streamline lawyers were shocked. The immigrant parents had been arrested by Border Patrol, an arm of the Department of Homeland Security, and were being prosecuted by the U.S Department of Justice. Their children had been taken into the care of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, part of another giant federal agency. ORR contracts with numerous organizations for child placements all over the country. Where did Lupe’s son get taken? Where was Oscar’s daughter? Lawyers and other advocates scrambled to find out.

Immigrant parent/child separation has sharply increased all along the U.S.-Mexico border, impacting mostly brown and black Latino families. The American Immigration Council reported that 638 parents were separated from 658 children during prosecution for illegal entry during a 13-day period in May.

In Tucson’s Streamline court, frightened parents ask their lawyers to find out how they can be reunited with their child at the time of deportation. There are few answers.

The Houston Chronicle reported that coordination between Immigration and Customs Enforcement and ORR is rare or nonexistent. A parent convicted of illegal entry may get time served and be deported in a few days, or may be incarcerated for several months, depending on the charges. The children are held in shelters or other child welfare settings for weeks or months, which is undoubtedly traumatizing. It is difficult for detained parents to locate their children, and almost impossible to arrange for a coordinated deportation. Thus, parents may be returned to their home country alone, without knowing where their children are or how to get them back.

The ramped-up child separation is also creating a strain on existing resources. In mid-May, numerous media reported that the Trump administration is considering using military bases to expand the nation’s capacity for immigrant child custody.

Many of the parents affected by child separation are fleeing persecution and violence in Central America. The U.S. is bound by its own law and international treaties to allow these families to pursue asylum claims without punishment or deportation. Yet we are subjecting them to both. President Trump denounces gang violence in Central America but won’t protect the very people who are brave enough to risk everything to resist and escape.

This can no longer be ignored. Where are our community, political and religious leaders, the ministers, rectors, bishops, rabbis, imams, and especially the evangelical leaders with close ties to this administration? This is our government, seizing children and holding them hostage, purportedly in order to teach their parents a lesson — a grave moral and human-rights violation.

Please call your members of Congress and ask them to take steps to ensure that the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice immediately cease prosecuting parents entering the U.S. with children and cease separating children from their parents.

Contact your representative

Sen. Jeff Flake: 520–575–8633

Sen. John McCain: 520–670–6334

Rep. Raúl Grijalva: 520–622–6788

Rep. Martha McSally: 520–881–3588